惠誉评级:Libra将是银行支付机制的最新挑战!
Louis 2019-07-10 10:30:02发布
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摘要:国际三大评级机构之一。  

原创: Fitch Ratings 数链评级ShulianRatings 

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日期:2019年7月8日,伦敦,06:24

来源:惠誉评级www.fitchratings.com

编译:数链评级(www.shulianratings.com

原题:Fitch Ratings: Libra the Latest Challenge to Bank Payment Mechanisms

简介:

惠誉集团(Fitch Group)由约翰·惠誉(John Knowles Fitch)于1913年创办,总部位于纽约及伦敦,是金融信息服务的全球领导者,业务遍及30多个国家。它由惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)、惠誉解决方案(Fitch Solutions)和惠誉学习(Fitch Learning)组成。

1975年,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)认可标准普尔(S&P)、穆迪(Moody's)和惠誉评级为“全国认定的评级组织”(NRSRO)。根据SEC向国会提交的NRSROs(2018年度)报告,三家市场份额分别是49.20%、33.10%和13.50%,2017年三家合计收入约66.81亿美元,在全球占据绝对垄断地位。

目前为止,国际三大评级机构均未对加密货币进行评级。



正文


惠誉评级认为,Facebook的Libra加密货币是发达市场大型科技公司为建立替代零售支付机制所做的重大突破,旨在模仿中国和拉丁美洲类似计划的成功。

Facebook's Libra cryptocurrency is a significant effort by a developed-market big-techfirm to set up an alternative retail payment mechanism, and aims to emulate thesuccess of similar initiatives in China and Latin America, Fitch Ratings says.

 

我们预计对北美和欧洲银行的短期和中期影响有限,但Western Union(西联汇款)、Moneygram(速汇金)和Transferwise等跨境支付商可能会受到影响。

#西联汇款是目前世界领先的特快汇款公司,迄今已有150年的历史。

#2017年1月26日,蚂蚁金服欲以约8.8亿美元并购速汇金。2018年1月2日,美国外资投资委员会(CFIUS)以国家安全为由否决了二者的合并计划。

#Transferwise是一家提供国际汇款转账服务的P2P 平台。

We expect limited short- to medium-term impact on North American and European banks, although cross-border payment specialists such as Western Union, Moneygram and Transferwise could be affected.

 

Facebook广泛的网络,大数据访问和技术最终可以帮助Libra挑战银行支付机制的主导地位。

Facebook's extensive network, big data access and technology could eventually help Libra challenge banks' dominance of payment mechanisms.

 

但严格的监管和对数据隐私的担忧可能会限制Facebook利用这些因素的能力。

But tight regulation and concerns about data privacy may constrain Facebook's ability tocapitalise on these factors.

 

如果Libra取得成功,它可能主要用作Facebook和其他消费者公司的替代支付渠道,类似于PayPal拥有的Venmo服务,或像中国大型科技公司腾讯提供的虚拟货币Q币。

#PayPal于1998年建立,是一个总部在美国加利福尼亚州的在线支付服务商。

#Venmo是一间位于美国纽约州纽约市的电子商务公司。

#Q币是由腾讯推出的一种虚拟货币,通过购买QQ卡,电话充值,银行卡充值,网络充值,手机充值卡,一卡通充值卡等方式获得。

If Libra comesto fruition, it is likely be used primarily as an alternative payment rail for Facebook and other consumer companies, similar to the Venmo service owned byPayPal, or Q Coin, a virtual currency offered by Chinese big-tech firm Tencent.

 

Calibra是Facebook的一家子公司,在美国注册为一家货币服务商(Money Service Business,MSB)。它计划使用电子钱包,允许转入和转出Libra。

Calibra, a Facebook subsidiary registered in the US as a money service business, plans an electronic wallet allowing transfers into andout of Libra.

 

Libra与Calibra的一起使用可以在Facebook拥有最大常规用户群的地方,特别是亚太地区,增加Facebook从电子商务和支付中获得的收入。

The use of Libra, with Calibra, could increase Facebook's revenue from e-commerce and payments, particularly in Asia-Pacific, where Facebook has its largest regularuser base.


非银行渠道在新兴市场获得了最大的支持,即使在大型银行主导金融服务的亚洲,也可以获得负担得起的手机数据资费。
Non-bank channels have gained most ground in emerging markets, even in Asia where large banks dominate financial services, aided by affordable mobile phonedata tariffs.

 

一些大型科技公司已成功创建了自己的支付基础设施,并与电子商务、社交媒体和消息等核心产品紧密相连。

Severalbig-tech firms have successfully created their own payments infrastructure closely intertwined with core products such as e-commerce, social media and messaging.


例如,蚂蚁金服的支付宝和腾讯的微信支付在中国的支付处理量相当于2017年中国GDP的16%。

Examples include Ant Financial's Alipay and Tencent's WeChat Pay in China, whose payment processing volumes were equivalent to 16% of China's GDP in 2017.

 

然而,在北美、欧洲和发达的亚太市场,非银行支付处理仍然很少。科技公司仍然使用现有的基于银行的支付基础设施。

However,non-bank payments processing remains minimal in North America, Europe and developed Asia-Pacific markets, where big-tech firms still use existingbank-based payment infrastructure.

 

严格的监管可能会使Facebook和Libra的公司支持者们的雄心壮志得到一定控制。
Strict regulation may keep the ambitions of Facebook and Libra's other corporate backers in check.

 

鉴于Facebook拥有大量用户,标准制定者和监管机构可能会将Libra视为系统支付基础设施。

Standard-settersand regulators are likely to regard Libra as a systemic payment infrastructure given Facebook's large number of users.

 

金融稳定委员会已经警告过未受监管的加密货币所带来的风险,并指出使用加密货币进行零售支付将需要严格的监督管理。

The Financial Stability Board has warned of risks created by cryptocurrencies outsideregulators' authority, noting that use of cryptocurrencies for retail payments would warrant tight regulatory oversight.

 

尚不清楚Libra用户是否会受益于州存款保险计划。

It is unclear whether Libra users will benefit from state deposit insurance schemes.

 

中央银行通过改变一揽子支持资产的构成影响Libra的价值,进而阻止Facebook及其合作伙伴的潜在影响。

Central banks may also baulk at the potential ability of Facebook and its corporate partners to influence Libra's value by changing the composition of the basket of backingassets.

 

确保遵守数据保护和隐私要求至关重要。

Ensuringcompliance with data protection and privacy requirements will be critical.

在中国,腾讯Q币的使用在2000年代迅速扩大,超越了虚拟经济进入实体经济。 2009年,中国政府立法规定虚拟货币只能用于虚拟世界,原因是担心Q币会中断货币传输,犯罪分子可能会利用它们来洗钱。

In China, use of Q Coin expanded rapidly in the 2000s, reaching beyond the virtual economyinto the real economy. In 2009, the Chinese government legislated that virtual currency could only be used in the virtual world, due to concerns that Q Coins were interrupting monetary transmission and that criminals could use them tolaunder money.

尤其是考虑到反洗钱监管方面,Libra可能受到监管机构的阻碍,迫使其通过银行账户实现Libra与法定货币的转换。
Libra may be hampered by regulators forcing the use of bank accounts to change between it and fiat currency, particularly given anti-money-launderingregulation.

 

如果银行仍然需要使用-并付款-作为支付流程的一部分,目前尚不清楚Libra如何能够显着降低跨境费用。

It is not clearhow Libra can significantly reduce cross-border fees if banks still have to beused - and paid - as part of the payments process.

 

由于必须满足不同司法管辖区的法律标准和法规,Libra也面临成本和摩擦。

Libra also faces costs and friction from having to satisfy legal standards and regulationsacross different jurisdictions.

 

技术公司,特别是那些专注于社交媒体的技术公司,可以很好地获取有关用户的有价值数据。Libra的使用可能会使Facebook获得有关客户支出模式的更多信息,这可以帮助其企业客户提供更有针对性的服务。

Technology firms, particularly those focusing on social media, are well placed to gainaccess to valuable data about their users. Libra usage is likely to give Facebook access to greater information about client spending patterns, whichcould help its corporate customers offer more targeted services.

 

Facebook通过Calibra最终可能会提供更广泛的金融服务,包括信贷设施,并与仍然严重依赖传统基础设施的传统银行竞争。

Via Calibra,Facebook could eventually branch out to offer broader financial services, including credit facilities, and compete with traditional banks still heavily reliant on legacy infrastructure.

 

但是,这需要一个完全受监管的实体和相关成本,包括资本和流动性要求。

However, this would necessitate a fully regulated entity and associated costs, including capital and liquidity requirements.


 




另外



惠誉评级曾于今年6月24日在官网刊文《Facebook的Libra区块链可能是可行的技术加密货币》。英文标题为Facebook's Libra Blockchain May Be Viable Tech Cryptocurrency》。正文:

惠誉评级称,由Facebook领导,支付、技术和其他组织共同努力的Libra区块链代表了向潜在可行的加密货币迈出的一步。

Libra Blockchain, a joint effort among payments, technology and other organizations,led by Facebook, represents a step toward a potentially viable cryptocurrency,says Fitch Ratings.


数字货币也是大型科技公司转向金融服务的另一个例子。

The digitalcurrency is also another example of large technology companies moving into financial services.


我们相信Libra融合并改进了现有区块链技术的要素,同时解决了某些固有的缺陷,即价格不稳定和治理挑战。

We believe Libra incorporates and improves upon elements of existing blockchain technology,while resolving certain inherent drawbacks, namely price instability and governance challenges.

 

Libra的设计似乎也符合监管机构的认可和合法性。

Libra also seems to be designed with regulatory acceptance and lawfulness in mind. 


Facebook将在2019年之前充当主导角色,但该公司对Calibra钱包和27亿用户群的并行开发可能会通过Libra加密货币让Facebook立刻壮大。

Facebook will lead the effort only through 2019 but the company's parallel development of the Calibra wallet and 2.7 billion user base could give Facebook immediate scalewith the Libra cryptocurrency.

 

此外,我们认为Facebook的技术领先地位,巨大的财务灵活性和集中扩大发展中国家市场占有率的战略,将提升Libra的落地可能性。

Further, we view Facebook's technology leadership, substantial financial flexibility and strategic focus on expanding its platforms across the developing world asincreasing the chances Libra gets off the ground.

Libra与其他加密货币的潜在优势在于它拥有法币管理的一揽子储备资产支持,储备基金很像货币委员会。
A potential advantage of Libra versus other cryptocurrencies is its fullbacking by a reserve basket of fiat currency assets managed in a reserve fund implemented like a currency board.


储备基金规模将随交易需求而调整,而不是任意限制供应量,或其他加密货币实施的算法。

The size of thereserve fund will be a function of transactional demands, not an arbitrary supply limit or other algorithm as in other cryptocurrency implementations.

 

这些措施可以保持价格稳定,避免现有加密货币的投机性质,并提高其作为交换媒介和价值储存的效用,这是长期生存的关键。

These measures could preserve price stability, avoiding the speculative nature of existing cryptocurrencies and improving its utility as a medium of exchange and store ofvalue, which is the key to long-term viability. 

 

从技术角度来看,Libra结合了一种名为“Move”的专用编程语言来标准化合同并提高安全性,以及拜占庭容错(BFT)方法,以便就其他区块链使用的工作证明方法达成共识,这很可能实质上提高性能和能耗。
From a technical perspective, Libra combines a purpose-built programming language called "Move" to standardize contracts and improve security,along with a Byzantine fault tolerance (BFT) approach to consensus over a proof of work approach used by other blockchains, which is likely to improve performance and energy consumption materially.


这些特征,以及作为许可系统开始的选择,而不是免许可的系统,其目标是随着时间的推移变得无权限,这可能使Libra 区块链更有可能获得成功。

These characteristics, along with the choice to begin as a permissioned system asopposed to a permission-less one with the goal of becoming permission-less overtime, could make it more likely Libra Blockchain becomes successful. 

 

我们认为Libra的概念化与实现审慎监管和消费者保护的高标准基本一致。但是,可能会出现系统性风险,因此监管将成为一个重要的缓解因素。
We believe Libra's conceptualization is fundamentally aligned with achievinghigh standards for prudent regulation and consumer protection. However,systemic risk could arise so regulation will be an important mitigating factor. 

创始人的初步治理,包括Facebook和主要支付公司,如万事达卡,维萨卡,PayPal(BBB + /稳定版)和Stripe,以及最终扩大到符合某些标准的组织的成员资格,应该调整财务资源,增加稳定性并减少对规避法律法规。
Initial governance by the founders, which includes Facebook and major payments companies, such as Mastercard, Visa, PayPal (BBB+/Stable) and Stripe, andeventual expansion of membership to organizations meeting certain criteriashould align financial resources, increase stability and reduce incentives tocircumvent laws and regulation. 

这种治理应该有助于建立与消费者的信任,但监管机构的接受最终是Libra变得可行的必要条件。英格兰银行行长上周发表的评论表明,Libra将面临严格的监管审查,但考虑到加密货币有可能改善金融包容性并降低国内和跨境支付成本,因此将以开放的态度加以考虑。
Such governance should help build trust with consumers but regulatory acceptance is ultimately necessary for Libra to become viable. Comments lastweek by the Governor of the Bank of England suggest Libra would face tough regulatory scrutiny but would be considered with an open mind given the cryptocurrency's potential to improve financial inclusion and lower costs of domestic and cross border payments.

 

Libra协会估计有17亿成年人,其中10亿人拥有移动电话和5亿互联网接入服务,但银行服务不足。该协会认为,这种无银行账户的人口可以通过其加密货币服务,实现近乎无成本的交易,汇款金额低于1美元甚至接近几美分。

The Libra Association estimates 1.7 billion adults, 1.0 billion of which have a mobilephone and 500 million internet access, are underserved by banks. The association believes this unbanked population can be served by its cryptocurrency enabling near costless transactions and remittances of amountsless than $1 and even approaching just a few cents. 

虽然Libra的某些设计元素有可能使其成为可扩展的加密货币,但竞争剧烈。据报道,社交应用Signal、Kakao和Line正在追逐类似的数字货币,Telegram显然正在计划推出区块链平台Telegram Open Network。

While certaindesign elements of Libra signal the potential to make it a scalable cryptocurrency, competition may challenge efforts. The apps Signal, Kakao and Line are reportedly pursuing similar digital currencies and Telegram apparently has plans to launch blockchain platform Telegram Open Network.

 

其他技术公司,如Alphabet、Apple和Microsoft(AA + / Stable)可能会寻求开发或支持竞争产品。

It is possibleother technology companies such as Alphabet, Apple and Microsoft (AA+/Stable)could look to develop or support competing efforts.

 

Apple今年夏天推出信用卡Apple Card的计划是另一个大型科技公司如何转向金融服务的例子。亚洲竞争对手中,例如,拥有微信的腾讯(A + / Stable),已经在他们的应用中内置了金融功能。

Apple's plan tointroduce a credit card, the Apple Card, this summer is another example of howbig technology companies are moving into financial services. Asian competitors,such as Tencent (A+/Stable) with WeChat, already have financial functionality built into their apps.

 

美国金融科技领导者Visa、万事达卡、PayPal等公司已经在技术能力方面投入巨资,以便在全球范围内汇款更轻松,更快捷,更便宜。

US FinTechleaders Visa, Mastercard, PayPal and others are already investing heavily intechnological capabilities to make it easier, quicker and cheaper to send money globally. 



 

 

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